With apologies to Neil Armstrong: It was one small step for a light aircraft; one giant leap for Indian aerospace. That, at least, is what industrial magnate Anand Mahindra would have us believe, as the C-NM5, a five-seater aircraft that he hailed as “our first indigenous effort” made its maiden flight on Wednesday.
But the eurphoria – while understandable – may be misplaced, and not only because there is a big Australian component to the new aircraft’s technology. Analysts say a lack of aviation infrastructure and competitive pricing of road and rail services will hamper the plane’s attempts to break into the as-yet-intapped Indian market for small aircraft.
The C-NM5 is the first in a fleet of small aircraft Mahindra Aerospace is putting together that will eventually include a 2-seater, an 8-seater, a 10-seater and an 18-seater. It was designed with help from Mahindra’s Australian subsidiary, GippsAero, in a public-private partnership with India’s National Aerospace Laboratories – “A partnership that will enable India to Rise – to the skies!” according to Mahindra’s statement.
Its potential looks impressive. The C-NM5 offers a price per passenger kilometer that is only 25 per cent above that of an air-conditioned car: 13 to 14 US cents versus 10 cents by road, Hemant Luthra, chairman of Mahindra Aerospace, told beyondbrics.
Luthra said the C-NM5, priced at around $350,000 to $400,000 – 25 per cent cheaper than comparable planes – would appeal to tourism operators for wildlife and religious pilgrimages, the wealthy, low-cost regional carriers and logistics companies.
But Mahantesh Sabarad, an analyst at Fortune Equity brokers, told beyondbrics he didn’t think there was a market for such aircraft in India. Ultimately, he said: “it’s not about aircraft; it’s about airport infrastructure capacity… the capacity bottleneck is coming from insufficient infrastructure and, more specifically, inadequate runway capacity.”
Mahindra says the plane will land on unpaved rural runways as short as 500 meters and can take off from around 800 meters. Still, Sabarad said, India’s dilapidated aviation infrastructure and lack of trained manpower makes low-cost regional carriers unviable. Meanwhile, the comparatively lower cost of road and rail freight makes logistics companies unlikely buyers.
Citing the experience of low-cost airline pioneer GR Gopinath, whose express logistics company Deccan 360 collapsed after just two years, Sabarad said air freight was a difficult proposition in India. “Running an aircraft logistics company is pretty expensive and there are not that many players willing to pay that cost,” he said.
“High fuel costs make it very expensive… and another issue [is the] shortage of trained manpower.”
Abhijit Iyer-Mitra, research officer at Delhi’s Institute of Peace & Conflict Studies, agreed.
“Most Indian pilots go abroad for training and I doubt very much that the salary band they expect after completing their (very expensive) studies abroad can make any kind of ultra-low cost flight with just 5 passengers feasible,” said Iyer-Mitra, who is also an amateur small aircraft pilot.
However, Iyer-Mitra said he did see a very good export market for the product, something Mahindra is also looking at, while never, the company said, taking its focus off of the domestic market.
“If you go by our experience with other aircraft, we’ve already sold the 8-seater in about 40 countries, and I don’t see why this aircraft can’t do the same,” said Luthra.
Roughly 2,000 single-engine turbo prop planes are sold annually worldwide, he added.
Mahindra aims to increase that number while boosting sales in India’s hitherto nearly non-existent small aircraft market. To that end, Mahindra is constructing a $60m manufacturing plant outside Bangalore in southern India that can construct components for planes large and small.
He said Mahindra hoped the C-NM5 would repeat the success of the company’s rugged, low-cost Scorpio SUV which since its 2002 launch has increased the company’s market capitalisation 50 times.
“When we built the Scorpio, we designed it at a cost of less than $150m,” he said. “We’ve done this for less than $15m, including four prototypes, and when we amortize that across our sales,” the company is confident it will be successful.
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