By KAVERI NITHTHYANANTHAN And DOUG CAMERON
Airbus raised its long-term global market forecast for aircraft demand, though a trade group warned of a slowdown in coveted premium traffic.
The Airbus unit of European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co. and rival Boeing Co. are boosting production of aircraft over the next three years and introducing new models, though some people in the industry have started to warn about the potential for oversupply as global economic growth slows.
Airbus, though slightly less bullish than Boeing was earlier this year, forecast demand for 27,800 new passenger and freighter aircraft at a combined total list price of $3.5 trillion through 2030. Aircraft passengers typically negotiate discounts from list prices.
Both companies have record order books. A more immediate concern is the availability of financing for near-term deliveries and the prospect that the industry's long-term expansion, which is closely tied to economic growth, could be interrupted.
The International Air Transport Association said Monday that indicators for business travel look "gloomy" and suggested that expansion could stall in the fourth quarter. The IATA is expected to upgrade its forecast for industry earnings on Tuesday, having trimmed the outlook in June to $4 billion from the $8.6 billion predicted in March.
While oil prices have declined sharply, jet-fuel costs remain elevated because of refining bottlenecks and growth has slowed in the Asia-Pacific markets that Airbus and Boeing see driving fleet expansion.
The airline industry lost the equivalent of two years growth during the last financial crisis, based on historical trends. While leisure traffic has returned, the more-profitable premium business remains below its prerecession peak.
Airbus and Boeing have said the replacement of older planes will account for more than a third of deliveries. But the companies' forecasts diverge in a number of areas.
The biggest area of disagreement is over demand for the biggest passenger aircraft. Airbus said demand is on the rise and should reach 1,781 planes, including its A380 superjumbo, over the next 20 years. That was twice Boeing's forecast.
Airbus projected that the global fleet of all passenger aircraft with more than 100 seats would rise to 31,500 planes. Boeing put the figure at 36,030 aircraft.
Boeing is more bullish on the market for single-aisle passenger jets, forecasting that traffic will rise at a 5.1% annual rate. Its European rival forecast 4.8%.
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