If a best-case scenario
holds for Colton Daum and Ryan Enebo, the young pilots could find their
wings layered in gold as their industry works through an aviator crunch.
"In
the grand scheme of things, it's a really good thing," said Daum, 21,
of Dix, Neb. He and Enebo are among graduates of the professional pilot
program at Kansas State University at Salina who are eager to launch
their careers.
But new rules governing commercial pilots have the
industry dealing with a shortage. The shortfall gives the newbies a
chance for higher pay starting out -- six-figure salaries if they're
willing to move overseas -- and a quick ascent of command chains.
When
the Federal Aviation Administration increases flight time in August
from 700 to 900 hours to 1,500 hours just to be a co-pilot, air
transportation could slow, said Kurt Barnhart, aviation department head
at KSU-Salina.
It's a first whiff of what he calls a "perfect storm" that could jump-start careers.
"We'll hopefully ride the seniority wave," said Enebo, 21, from Sanger, Texas.
But
for now, their careers are in a holding pattern. Both K-State
graduates, Enebo and Daum are serving as flight instructors on the
Salina campus, waiting for career plans to materialize while adding
flight hours and hoping for an adjustment to the minimum age
requirement, which is moving to 23 late this summer
Currently, a
commercial pilot certificate with a multi-engine rating is all that's
needed to obtain employment, Barnhart said, then the airlines set their
own requirements for flight time.
Losing half the pilots
But that's changing.
"Airlines
can't lower the hour requirement to fill voids. It's a hard rule, and
that's really what's got it in a pinch this time," Barnhart said.
Adding to the shortage was the FAA extending the retirement age from 60 to 65 five years ago.
"In the next 10 years, we could lose almost half of our current pilots," Daum said.
It's
ironic, Barnhart said, that just a few years ago, just before Enebo and
Daum were underclassmen, the airlines were reeling from a glut of
pilots. Go back to 2007 and 2008, and supplies were tight as the economy
dipped into a recession.
"Now we're up against a problem that we
kicked down the road," Barnhart said. "We have fewer people studying
aviation. It's not as popular as it was, particularly due to the expense
of flying and the complexity that's crept in over the years."
In-state students will invest $70,000 for their higher education and flight fees combined, Barnhart said.
New planes, more rest
Other factors have contributed.
Air carriers are buying new aircraft, he said, and some pilots are opting to retire rather than learn to fly a new plane.
Starting
in January 2014, airline pilots are mandated to have more rest between
flights, meaning commercial carriers are going to need more pilots to
cover schedules.
"(Human resources) folks at the airlines
literally have no idea where pilots are going to be coming from,"
Barnhart said. "American Airlines will need 400 more pilots a year just
to keep up with the added rest rules."
United Airlines estimated
that starting in January, it would lose one pilot every 18 hours, he
said, and at American Airlines, word is 70 percent of the company's
pilots will retire in 15 years; the figure was 65 percent with Delta
Airlines during the same span.
"It will aggravate the situation," Barnhart said. "It could be a difficult year."
In
the past two years at K-State, he said, the professional pilot student
body has grown from 200 to 250. But even if that trend is the same at
other universities with professional pilot programs, Barnhart can only
hope that enrollment spikes will fill the void.
Pay can really shoot up
The
shortage hasn't yet caused pilot wages in the United States to hit the
stratosphere, but they have risen from lows of $17,000 a year for a
rookie to somewhere between $20,000 and $30,000.
But as pilots gain experience, their pay grows exponentially.
"By year three, one of our graduates could be expected to make $70,000 to $80,000," Barnhart said.
Major airline pilots retire making $200,000, but fewer than four years ago, the veterans were hitting the $400,000 range.
Making the problem more difficult for domestic employers is wage competition overseas.
With
minimal experience, "You can sign a three- to five-year contract to
work in China for $300,000 to $500,000 a year," Barnhart said. "They're
promising living arrangements and housekeeping. A lot of people are
saying, 'I can live in China.' "
Living in the USA
The two Wildcat fliers aren't that eager to bolt abroad on the promise of riches.
"You just can't beat living in America. I'd probably stay over here," Daum said.
Enebo has looked into jobs in other countries, just for the income potential.
"They pay quite a bit more," he said. "I don't know about moving permanently to another country."
Regardless of where they end up getting their mail, Daum and Enebo are right now just trying to stay apprised.
The
FAA is considering changing the rules to allow restricted commercial
licenses for those with 1,000 hours of flight time and at least age 21.
Both exceed those proposed thresholds. A ruling is expected in May or
June.
"There are proposals. We would like to see some sort of
collegiate training exemption, but it's pretty late in the game,"
Barnhart said.
It could change quickly
The young pilots are not counting on big bucks or any other perks.
"I'm
very hesitant to put all of my faith in this pilot shortage," Daum
said. "Everything could change at the drop of a hat. I just try to stay
well-versed on this."
Story: http://www.salina.com
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