Even against the backdrop of the recent bombing of a Russian aircraft and increasing pressures to make air travel more sustainable, there was no denying the almost giddy sense of optimism for the thriving aviation industry as hundreds of delegates gathered in Montreal this week for the inaugural World Aviation Forum.
Organized by the International Civil Aviation Organization — an agency of the United Nations which oversees international air transport — the conference brought an array of 800 representatives from countries around the world to ICAO headquarters in Montreal. Countries from Mozambique to Portugal to Kazakhstan were there, as well as delegates from lesser-known places, like Benin in West Africa.
While the U.S. State Department’s global travel alert this week — in effect until at least Feb. 24 — following “increased terrorist threats” around the world certainly cast a shadow over the industry, ICAO president Olumuyiwa Benard Aliu said the biggest challenge still remains accommodating the anticipated growth safely, efficiently and in an environmentally responsible way.
“Latest projections point to no less than a doubling of flight and passenger volumes over the next 15 years,” he said in his opening keynote address. “This means that the 100,000 daily flights today will grow to 200,000 by 2030, with the 3.3 billion passengers we now move around the world each year surpassing 6 billion over the same period.”
On a typical day, more than 9 million people around the world take a flight.
The conference discussed one big obstacle on the horizon for the aviation industry — and Montreal’s local aerospace industry — as world leaders meet at the United Nations climate change conference in Paris next week.
It is likely the aviation industry will be targeted at that forum, said Nadia Bhuiyan, a professor in the department of mechanical and industrial engineering at Concordia University and director of education for the Concordia Institute for Aerospace and Design Innovation (CIADI), with calls for greener aircraft.
“In climate talks held in Geneva in February, aviation was not spared and this sort of sets the stage for what’s to come,” she said in an interview.
She said the expected surge in air traffic will only make it that much more challenging to reduce carbon emissions from aircraft; the aviation industry is already responsible for about 2 per cent of the global manmade contribution to greenhouse gas emissions.
The aerospace industry has been working hard to address this issue, she said, and has already made progress with lighter, quieter and more fuel-efficient aircraft.
“The industry, universities and governments are working together to tackle this even more aggressively,” she said. “There is a continued need to find ways to reduce fuel consumption … and invest in new technologies to further reduce emissions.”
She said that continued action on environmental sustainability is urgently needed and that Montreal, as a major aerospace hub, must play a role in meeting those environmental challenges.
Aliu, however, said he hopes that new standards adopted for 2016 requiring more efficient engines for aircraft will calm environmental concerns.
“In Paris, we need to ensure that aviation is not targeted in a disproportionate manner as a means of funding other sectors because we are doing what it takes on our own,” he said in an interview.
TERROR AND SAFETY
As for safety, Aliu admitted that audits have shown “some troubling variation” in the implementation of ICAO standards and recommended practices across jurisdictions, which was the reason for the launch of its No Country Left Behind program last year: to begin closing gaps.
The goal is that whether a passenger is travelling from Paris to Sydney or Beijing to the Congo, they must be able to do so with complete assurance of safe, secure and reliable air transport, said Aliu.
But when planes fall out of the sky — as was the case with the Russian Metrojet airliner over Egypt’s Sinai desert last month and Malaysia Airlines last year — and major tourist destinations like Paris are attacked, travellers, understandably, get jittery.
“The effects of this type of incident can definitely have a huge impact on the industry and expected growth,” said Bhuiyan.
Hundreds of billions of dollars were lost in the tourism industry after increased terrorism in 1985 and, of course, following 9/11, Bhuiyan said. Now the U.S. travel alert could wreak havoc with holiday travelling this year. “If people’s fears are well managed, then we can still expect an increase of 5 per cent annually in air travel,” she said.
The increase in terror threats, she said, requires better screening methods, better protection of airports and safer in-flight travel. Aliu told reporters this week that ICAO will hold a meeting in March on security to address issues such as risk management and airport security, including “insider threats” from airport staff, airline employees and others who have access to aircraft.
He said it’s critical that public confidence in air travel remains high, pledging to implement recommendations of an investigation being conducted into the Oct. 31 explosion aboard the Russian plane that killed 224 people. The Islamic State has claimed responsibility, saying it had planted a bomb aboard the aircraft.
A ROBUST LOCAL INDUSTRY
Could these environmental and security concerns in aviation have ramifications for Montreal’s aerospace industry, which provides 42,000 jobs in the Montreal area and has sales of $14 billion? Already industry giant Bombardier Inc. has floundered with its fuel-efficient CSeries jet, which prompted the Quebec government to make the controversial decision this month to invest US$1 billion in the troubled program. And Quebec will ask the federal government to match its investment.
Even in the wake of terrorism and the Bombardier predicament, Quebec’s aerospace industry has never been stronger, said Suzanne Benoît, president of aerospace cluster Aéro Montréal.
“Of course we have to keep it safe,” she said in an interview. “But this is a great time for aerospace because of the forecast growth.” She said 40,000 more aircraft will be required to meet aviation demands by 2030.
Montreal — which has the third-largest aerospace cluster in the world and houses industry giants such as Pratt & Whitney Canada, Bombardier Inc., Bell Helicopter Textron Inc. and CAE. — is not struggling because of events at Bombardier, she said.
“Bombardier is not in trouble,” she said, adding the CSeries is a “rethought” aircraft that will be the greenest aircraft in its category (single aisle, 100 to 139 seats), but something that new and complex needs a lot of financial support.
But some analysts have said the bailout and massive writedown after a US$4.9-billion third-quarter loss is the beginning of the end for Bombardier’s gamble on a narrowbody aircraft.
Richard Aboulafia, a Washingtong-based consultant in the aircraft field, said in an interview the CSeries has been “ripping apart” the rest of company because Bombardier simply bit off more than it could chew. Although he did call the CSeries a “seriously good aircraft.”
Lacking funds to be commercially aggressive, he said, Bombardier couldn’t afford to really launch a new generation jetliner. He likened it to bringing “a crème brûlée torch to a flame-throwers fight.”
And he said the outcome should be interesting now that whole problem has landed squarely in the lap of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who would be hard-pressed to turn his back on a major Quebec company but whose government has recently forecast a likely $3-billion deficit rather than the $2.3-billion surplus the Conservatives had predicted.
But no one is really predicting that Bombardier’s troubles will affect the rest of the industry here. Bhuiyan said what is happening can be attributed, in part, to the newness of the product.
“Some of Bombardier’s troubles can be compared to Boeing’s Dreamliner problems,” she said. “An aircraft that is so innovative and new will undoubtedly come with its share of risk and uncertainty, which will result in delays and cost overruns.”
Research to conquer some of these concerns is important and Montreal is certainly doing its part, said Benoît. The Montreal Aerospace Institutes is a joint venture between the aerospace industry and local universities to address the industry’s needs.
And Concordia was just granted a $1-million chair in aerospace design engineering by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, which will help it create innovative programs to meet the design needs of the industry.
Senior chair holder Catharine Marsden said it’s an exciting time for the aerospace industry because there is so much growth and so many technological advances.
“It’s a very high tech field and a very regulated field. Aircraft need to be safe and compliant, so there are many constraints to the design,” she said. On top of that, it is very global and very competitive.
The new chair will help the university train students who are up to the task of integrating new technologies and designing the best aircraft.
“We have many companies at the forefront of this field,” Marsden said. “The aerospace business is not going to go away any time soon.”
Source: http://montrealgazette.com
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