Gulfstream crash investigation 'bump in road' for G650 certification

By Mary Mayle 

A little more than four years ago, Gulfstream Aerospace Corp. unveiled plans for the longest-range, highest-speed, largest-cabin aircraft the company has ever built. 

Just 18 months later, the first G650 rolled out onto the tarmac at Gulfstream’s Savannah manufacturing facility to the cheers and applause of some 7,000 employees, customers and dignitaries.

The new flagship business jet was an almost instant success, its order book filling quickly into triple digits with customers eager to shell out more than $60 million each for the unprecedented distance, speed and comfort owning a G650 would bring.

The aircraft took its first test flight in late 2009. By the time the fifth and final test aircraft took to the skies in early 2011, the program had already logged more than 1,100 hours in the air and seemed well on its way to certification by mid-year.

Then came the tragedy in New Mexico, when the second flight test aircraft crashed at the Roswell airport as it was conducting a simulated late-takeoff engine failure. All four aboard — two pilots and two flight test engineers — were killed.

The accident marked the first time Gulfstream had lost a plane in test, and — as they mourned the loss of the four men — company officials and industry analysts were quick to reiterate their confidence in the program.

“We’re on track and moving steadily toward certification later this year,” Pres Henne, Gulfstream’s senior vice president for programs, engineering and test said in August 2011. A few weeks earlier, Jay Johnson, chairman of Gulfstream parent company General Dynamics, told analysts in a conference call he was pleased with the G650’s progress and expected to remain on track for customer deliveries in 2012.

Although the G650 has not received certification, Gulfstream officials expect that to happen soon.

“We’re looking at the end of this quarter or early in the third quarter,” Gulfstream spokeswoman Heidi Fedak said last week.

“Once we have certification, deliveries will begin within the month.”

Fedak said the order book for the flagship airplane remains strong with approximately 200 firm commitments.

Still, the extended timeline has not gone unnoticed. Last month, Goldman Sachs downgraded Gulfstream parent company General Dynamics Corp. from neutral to sell, cutting its price target from $68 to $56. 

Analyst Noah Poponak listed “Gulfstream risks” among his reasons for the downgrade.

“General Dynamics appears more focused on acquisitions at a time when growth prospects are particularly challenged,” he said. “At Gulfstream, book-to-bill (a ratio of orders taken to invoices sent that is used to determine demand) has turned down decisively, Jet Aviation challenges remain, and the G650/250 timelines still have risk of sliding.”

But aviation expert Michael Boyd sees the delay as nothing more than a bump in the road for Gulfstream.

“They’ve hit a little bit of a slowdown,” the president of The Boyd Group International said last week. “And the kinds of people who buy these airplanes don’t like to be slowed down.

“But these things happen occasionally to most companies.

“They have a very solid product. They will get through this and be just fine.”

Source:   http://savannahnow.com