Airbus Group, which has failed to find a new airline buyer for its A380 superjumbo this year, is at a crossroads that leaves it with two directions: spend heavily to improve the plane - or let it go.
This year is shaping up to be the first since the doubledecker entered service without a new airline customer. Its only buyer was a leasing company that has yet to line up a single carrier to take any of the 20 planes it ordered.
The backlog remains as thin as it is fragile, highlighted by the cancellation of six jets ordered by Japan's Skymark Airlines, with two close to handover.
In its seventh year in operation, the aircraft that cost $US25 billion ($30.1 billion) to develop threatens to become a costly misstep.
While popular with travelers, most carriers prefer smaller twin-jet models that are more fuel-efficient and can access more airports.
Emirates is the only stand-out sponsor, having ordered 140 units, while other airlines have either backed off or are struggling to fill the two decks of the jumbo.
"It's an excellent plane but it only works for the right destinations," said Air France-KLM chief executive, Alexandre de Juniac, who aims to cancel the last two of a dozen A380s on order and swap them for smaller models.
Airbus has so far ruled out a technical upgrade of the aircraft's engines that might make it more attractive to new buyers.
Chief financial officer Harald Wilhelm said last month that Airbus still plans to break even on the program on recurring costs next year, and that the A380 enjoyed a "healthy" backlog in the next few years.
Decision Time
Chris Buckley, Airbus's Executive Vice President, Europe, Asia and Pacific, said the company has been "at fault" in the way it marketed the aircraft, letting carriers customise the interiors in whatever way rather than pushing the high-density credentials of the double-decker.
The four-engine wide-body airliner is a rarity, after Airbus killed its A340.
Rival Boeing said on Thursday that it will cut back production of its 747 jumbo.
Airbus will meet with investors on Friday in London for a strategy briefing, likely facing questions about the future of the A380 program and how it can re-ignite the flagship.
Emirates President Tim Clark is pushing Airbus to upgrade the A380's engines to improve fuel efficiency, a move Airbus is resisting because the cost of doing so doesn't match demand for the plane.
But keeping the plane unchanged may mean running down the backlog and eventually shutting down production, now at just under 30 a year, analysts said.
Order Boom
"Airbus will be obliged to make a decision one way or the other in 2015," said Yan Derocles, an analyst at Oddo Securities in Paris, who estimates an engine upgrade may cost Airbus 2 billion euros ($2.97 billion) because of work required on the wing.
An engine upgrade would take about four years, according to Derocles.
The A380 now comes with a choice of engines either by Rolls-Royce or a joint venture between General Electric and United Technologies' Pratt & Whitney.
The A380's lacklustre demand contrasts with a boom in orders for other models. Airbus's bestseller remains its A320 family of single-aisle jets, which it made even more popular by offering new engines.
The same concept added momentum to the A330 wide-body jet. The all-new A350, a twin-engine long-range wide-body plane made of advanced light-weigh materials, has almost 800 orders before its first handover this week.
'A Pity'
Airbus has won orders for 318 of the jumbos. That's a fraction of the 1,200 it thought airlines needed in that size category when it started marketing in 2000.
Emirates accounts for 40 per cent of the order book, while airlines including Virgin Atlanti, Hong Kong Aviation and Air Austral are increasingly unlikely to ever take their planes.
Japan and China, originally seen by Airbus as key markets for the A380, have been disappointments, with only one Chinese airline taking 5 units.
Boeing's 747-8i, the only rival, has fared even worse, winning 51 orders from four airlines.
"It's a pity," said Tim Clark, the Emirates president. "It's a very big cash generator for us. I just open the doors and the people come."
Emirates has been successful with its fleet of A380s because the airline uses its Dubai hub as a central point from where to connect major routes around the globe with just one stop.
The A380 is also popular on capacity-restricted airports such as London Heathrow, while many smaller airfields lack the infrastructure to accommodate the plane.
Richard Aboulafia, vice president at the Teal Group and longtime critic of the plane, said the new large twin-engine planes coming to the market will be the death of the A380.
"I don't think it lasts more than a few years into the next decade," he said of the A380. "The quicker they let go, the quicker they can devote themselves to marketing efforts on other products."
Source: http://www.smh.com.au
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