Friday, September 30, 2011

Renewing Japan’s air force: Dogfight over the archipelago. A need for fighter jets pits old ties with America against new ones with Europe

ON MOST days for the past several years, pilots from the Japan Air Self-Defence Force have scrambled to stop military aircraft from China and Russia buzzing Japan’s air space. It is a reminder of how prickly Japan’s ties with its neighbours have become, not least because of contested sovereignty over a few remote islands. Intercepts of Chinese planes almost tripled last year, to 96 (see chart). Russia, meanwhile, recently sent two bombers skirting provocatively around the Japanese archipelago.

Amid such taunts, on September 26th Japan received three bids to supply an order of more than 40 fighter jets to replace the oldest part of its fleet. For years Japan had been hoping to buy America’s snazzy but expensive F-22 Raptor, a stealth fighter made by Lockheed Martin and Boeing, which has since been partially imitated by China and Russia. But after America banned exports of F-22s, even to its closest allies, Japan has had to look elsewhere. The result is a three-way contest between Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, Boeing’s F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and the Eurofighter Typhoon, built by a European Union consortium. Were the Typhoon to win, it would be the first time, at least since Japan and America signed a security alliance in 1960, that Japan had awarded a jet fighter contract to a non-American firm.

Historical precedent argues against this. Yoshihiko Noda, less than a month in office as prime minister, has sought to reassure the Americans that the mutual alliance is Japan’s “greatest asset”. The alliance is a card the American bidders are not shy of playing. John Balderston of Lockheed says the company’s bid is “a profound confirmation of the relationship between the two countries”.

Yet the defence ministry insists that it will be a fair competition, and EU countries are keen to hold it to that promise, especially in the light of mooted Japan-EU free-trade talks. “Public procurement is one of the areas where the EU wants to see some movement on the Japanese side,” says David Warren, British ambassador in Tokyo, whose government is leading the sales drive for the Typhoon in conjunction with BAE Systems, a British defence contractor.

Besides the geopolitics, plenty of technical and industrial pros and cons will keep the contest interesting. Analysts say that, because of its radar-evading capabilities, the F-35 most closely resembles the coveted F-22, which may give it the edge, especially since China showed off its own stealth-like fighter in January. However, the F-35 is hugely over-budget, and not available until at least 2016.

Boeing’s F-18 has the most combat experience, and is likely to be cheaper than the F-35. It is readily available. And, comfortingly for some, it has the latest, battle-tested radar technology. But others consider it dated, and this year it was edged out of a contest in India by two European planes, one of them the Typhoon.

The Typhoon’s backers say that their plane should win if Japan wants the most versatile fighter in the sky. That, they say, best suits armed forces that seek to act only in self-defence. However, some contenders say that Japan is ambiguous about whether it prefers an aircraft with a defence or a strike role, or both. Japan will also want to ensure the plane can operate closely with American forces.

Unlike the Americans, the Europeans offer what BAE calls “a no black box philosophy”; in other words, it will transfer all the Typhoon’s technology to Japan to help it revive its almost moribund military-jet manufacturing programme. The Americans sniffily suggest that such generosity comes from not offering the latest technology. However, transfers of cutting-edge American kit, especially the F-35’s stealth capabilities and the F-18’s radar, would be far more restricted.

The ramifications for Japanese industry are not to be underestimated, either. As Japan’s manufacturers move operations to lower-wage countries, the government has pinned some of its hopes for a manufacturing revival at home on a stronger aerospace industry. One symbol of this is the new Boeing 787 Dreamliner, around a third of which will be built in Japan. On September 28th ANA, a Japanese airline, flew the first commercial Dreamliner into Tokyo. The aircraft will go into service later this month.

As for the military-industrial complex, Mr Noda’s government has already sounded assertive in giving it backing. In Washington just days after the new government took office, Mr Noda’s policy chief, Seiji Maehara, called for a review of Japan’s ban on exporting arms technology. Lifting the ban would, he hopes, stimulate joint weapons production with America and other friends. In the same speech, he called China’s rise in Asia a “game-changer”. Given the number of Chinese jets buzzing Japan, this is a game that Japan wants to play with more chips.

http://www.economist.com

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