Dubai: Revealing the latest market outlook, the two biggest planemakers — Airbus and Boeing — yesterday forecast an enormous number of aircraft needed in the Middle East in the next 20 years.
According to France-based Airbus' latest Global Market forecast (GMF) carriers in the Middle East will require 1,921 new passenger and freighter aircraft (more than 100 seats) between 2011 and 2030 valued at $347.4 billion (Dh1.27 trillion). Of these, 1,882 are passenger aircraft ($336.3 billion) and 39 are freighter aircraft ($11.1billion).
US rival Boeing has taken the estimates a notch up as it forecasts that the region's airlines will need an estimated 2,520 planes worth $450 billion by 2030. The forecast comes as the region's carriers continue to surpass global air traffic and capacity growth.
Boeing, which had a backlog of 300 aeroplanes in the Middle East as of September 14, estimates that the Middle East's fleet of passenger aeroplanes will grow from the current 1,040 to a projected 2,710, a whopping increase of 160 per cent.
Expansion
While presenting Boeing's Current Market Outlook, Randy Tinseth, Boeing Commercial Aeroplanes' Vice-President of Marketing, said that 34 per cent of the projected demand will be for aeroplanes to replace current aircraft, and 66 per cent will be part of fleet expansion plans, as the region's airlines experience significant growth over the next two decades.
"The Middle East has seen an unprecedented growth in capacity over the past 10 years and every indication points to a further, significantly large increase over the next 20 years," he said.
Meanwhile, Airbus says that the region's above average passenger demand growth rate of 6.4 per cent per year over the next 20 years (well above the world average 4.8 per cent) will result in the almost trebling of the region's fleet from over 800 aircraft today to some 2,260 planes by 2030.
"The overall Middle East aviation market will grow 7.5 per cent per year over the next 20 years. The region remains one of the world's most robust aviation regions and this is confirmed by a 200 per cent increase in inter-regional passenger traffic over the last 10 years," said John Leahy, Airbus Chief Operating Officer.
He added that the region is uniquely placed with more than 85 per cent of the world's population within reach of a direct flight.
Adding to that, Boeing's Tinseth said: "The collective capacity of three airlines — Emirates, Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways — has grown by an average of 23 per cent annually over the past decade and we expect this trend to continue well into the future."
Further, most of the future growth is expected to be in single- and twin-aisle aircraft that will account for 90 per cent of the Middle East's new deliveries over the 20-year period, according to the Boeing forecast.
Airbus will also see the twin-aisle passenger aircraft market accounting for a majority of future plane deliveries, said Leahy.
In its latest forecast, Airbus said that the region's new passenger aircraft requirement include 779 single-aisle aircraft; 801 twin-aisle aircraft; and 302 very large aircraft (VLA). Of these, while 1,442 aircraft will be necessary for growth, 440 will be for replacing ageing aircraft with newer more eco-efficient models.
In the freighter aircraft category, however, there will be a demand for 13 twin-aisle aircraft and 26 VLA aircraft, Airbus stated. "Globally, there is a move towards larger aircraft in all size categories to help absorb growing passenger numbers despite infrastructure constraints," said Leahy, adding that region's carriers are increasingly choosing larger aircraft due to the growing number of global hubs in the region.
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