The Air Force is flying
into gale force winds as commercial airlines start a hiring spree while
military aviators struggle with low morale due to cutbacks and idle
jets. And the Air Force may see a shortage as pilots vote with their
feet.
Over the next year, the commercial airline industry is
going to begin hiring tens of thousands of new pilots as aging flyers
retire and the industry regains its economic footing. That could put
dark clouds in the way of the Air Force’s wild blue yonder as it tries
to persuade pilots to stay in a service even as top officials worry that
pilots don’t have enough yoke time.
“If pilots aren’t flying in
the Air Force because of our readiness issue, we worry that a number of
them are going to say, ‘I’m flying somewhere else,'’ ” acting Secretary
of the Air Force Eric Fanning told Foreign Policy in an interview this
month. “If I’m looking at my jet parked on the ramp instead of flying it
and I can get a job somewhere else flying, then I’m going to do that.
So we are concerned that there is a sort of perfect storm approaching us
in terms of flying retention.”
Fanning said current retention
rates are better than historical averages. But he fears there are a
number of lagging indicators that don’t tell the real story of how
furloughs, the government shutdown, and lower readiness rates will
affect the force over the next few years. The Air Force has publicly
raised the alarm about its lower readiness rates because of
sequestration and budget cutbacks. It may be using the threat of a pilot
shortage to convince its budget overseers in Congress to ensure the
service is properly funded. But no one disputes the factors at play are
real.
Those factors start with the commercial aviation sector.
There are three issues the industry is facing that could affect the Air
Force in a significant way. The biggest one is the change to mandatory
retirements for commercial airline pilots. In 2007, the FAA changed the
mandatory retirement age for pilots from 60 to 65, keeping more seasoned
pilots in the cockpits. But now thousands of those pilots are reaching
retirement age and the airline industry, which is experiencing a
comeback, will confront a shortage of experienced pilots across many
airlines.
“That wave is just hitting,” said one Air Force official.
The
FAA also increased the minimum number of flying hours pilots must have
after the crash in Buffalo, NY, in 2009 of a Colgan Air commuter flight
that pointed out problems with more inexperienced pilots. There are
additional crew rest regulations as well that require airlines to
maintain more pilots on staff.
The numbers suggest the Air
Force’s fears are grounded in reality: Some worst case scenarios suggest
the airline industry – including international carriers – could hire as
many as 50,000 pilots over the next 10 years, and some estimates are
even higher. If the industry aggressively targets pilots serving in the
U.S. Air Force, the service could be in for some turbulence. The Airline
Pilots Association, the primary trade group representing the interests
of pilots and which is tracking the issue, did not respond to multiple
requests for comment.
Source: http://www.miamiherald.com
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